Which states are most exposed as soybean exports falter?

U.S. soybean producers are ending 2025 facing one of the most uncertain markets in recent years.

China, by far the largest buyer of U.S. soybeans, has sharply reduced its purchases throughout the year due to the trade war initiated by the Trump administration in January.

Instead, Chinese importers have turned to cheaper and more abundant supplies from Brazil and Argentina, leaving U.S. exporters struggling to regain momentum.

This shift has increased pressure on producers, as approximately 40% of all U.S. soybeans are sold overseas, leaving farmers exposed during trade disputes and periods of global volatility.

The impact is particularly strong in states where soybeans are central to the agricultural economy. Soybeans account for more than a quarter of all agricultural export sales in nine states, including 38% in Illinois, according to data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA).

On Nov. 17, after President Trump and his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping, discussed soybean trade, China purchased at least 14 cargoes of U.S. soybeans, its largest purchase since January, Reuters reported.

Eight of the ships are scheduled to depart from Gulf Coast terminals in December and January, with the rest leaving from ports in the Pacific Northwest, traders told the news agency. Farmers have said that the new agreement with China does not represent an improvement, but merely maintains previous conditions.

Given the instability of export markets, agricultural groups say the United States must strengthen domestic markets to absorb more soybeans, especially soybean oil, which plays an important role in biofuel production.

In a joint Nov. 12 letter to President Trump, the American Soybean Association (ASA) and the National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) urged the government to finalize key policies to bolster biofuel production while promoting the use of domestic inputs, such as soybean oil.

The organizations called on the government to act quickly on several priorities, including urging the Environmental Protection Agency to finalize the 2026-2027 renewable volume obligations this year as proposed, with provisions intended to disincentivize fuel and feedstock imports.

American Soybean Association CEO Stephen Censky said the administration’s decisions in the coming weeks will directly influence farmer profitability and future processing investments.

“Farmers need clear and consistent federal policy to expand domestic biofuel production and strengthen the market for American grown soy,” Censky said in a statement.

“The administration has taken important steps to support U.S. biofuels, and it is essential that these policies are finalized before the end of the year.”

Biofuels remain one of the most critical domestic markets for soybeans. According to industry estimates, approximately half of all soybean oil processed in the United States is used for biomass-diesel production.

While farmers wait for clarity on global trade and federal policy, the data shows a widening gap: the Midwest and South continue to produce large volumes of soybeans, but their ability to sell them, both overseas and domestically, increasingly depends on decisions made outside the farm.