In 2025, growers grew more anxious about Brazil’s edge in global soybean markets

Note: This story was updated on Feb. 3, 2026 to reflect the latest results from the Ag Economy Barometer.

After a year defined by tariff-driven trade tensions, farmers’ confidence in tariffs as a tool to strengthen the farm economy appears to be slipping, according to the latest Ag Economy Barometer released in early January.

In December, 54% of the 400 producers surveyed by Purdue University and the CME Group, which operates major agricultural and financial markets, said they expected tariffs to strengthen the agricultural economy, a decline of about 4 to 5 percentage points from October and November.

Overall, farmer confidence dropped sharply in January, with farmers feeling worse about both current conditions and the future outlook for U.S. agriculture, according to the survey. The biggest decline was in expectations for the next five years, which fell to its lowest level since September 2024, alongside growing concerns about agricultural exports.

Under its “America First Trade Policy,” the Trump administration has pursued a trade fight with major partners, escalating tensions with China, the world’s largest soybean buyer. The conflict has included threats of tariffs as high as 157%, putting U.S. agriculture in the crosshairs of retaliation between the two powers.

For many producers, the bigger concern is Brazil’s growing advantage in soybean trade with China, a shift that accelerated during Trump’s first term and has continued to reshape global grain flows. In January, nearly 80% of corn and soybean producers said they were concerned or very concerned about the competitiveness of U.S. soybean exports compared with Brazil’s, down from 84% in December.

Soybeans remain a cornerstone of American agriculture, particularly in the Midwest. More than 270,000 farms nationwide grow the crop, according to the latest Census of Agriculture. In Illinois, nearly half of all farms rely on soybean production. In Iowa and Minnesota, about 4 in 10 do.

For more than a decade, China has pursued a strategy of expanding its footprint in Latin America through infrastructure investment, a push that has helped deepen its trade ties with Brazil, including in soybeans.

For example, at the Port of Santos, one of Brazil’s main gateways for foreign trade, Chinese state-backed agribusiness COFCO International has invested about $285 million in recent years. The expansion is expected to make it the port’s largest dry bulk terminal. Santos handles nearly a quarter of Brazil’s soybean exports, and China is its dominant trading partner, the top origin and destination for cargo moving through the port.

Data Harvest (formerly Graphic of the Week) is Investigate Midwest’s way of making complex agricultural data easy to understand. Through engaging graphics, charts, and maps, we break down key trends to help readers quickly grasp the forces shaping farming, food systems, and rural communities. Want us to explore other data trends? Let us know here.