The number of cattle on U.S. farms has shrunk to its smallest size in more than 70 years. With a temporary halt on cattle imports from Mexico, the beef supply may tighten further, and prices are expected to rise heading into the summer grilling season.
Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins announced a pause on all cattle imports from Mexico on May 11, citing the detection of New World screwworm — a parasitic fly that lays eggs in open wounds, where larvae feed on living tissue and can kill livestock. (The Trump administration laid off hundreds of employees from the USDA agency responsible for keeping such pests out of the U.S., but is now attempting to rehire many of them, calling their work “vital”.)
It’s unclear how long the import ban will last, but a longstanding ban could further shrink the U.S. cattle supply chain.
“Depending on how long the border is closed, tighter cattle supplies could contribute to higher beef prices in the coming months,” said Darrell Peel, a livestock marketing specialist and a professor of agricultural economics at Oklahoma State University.
The number of cattle in the U.S. has been declining for decades, this year dropping to 86.7 million – the lowest level since 1951. It marks the sixth consecutive year of inventory decline. Still, beef production hasn’t necessarily followed suit, as improvements in breeding and feeding have resulted in heavier animals that yield more meat per head.
But with demand for beef remaining strong, consumers are likely to feel the impact in the checkout line this summer.
Beef prices have been climbing steadily for years. The average price for a pound of ground beef has increased more than 4% since January, and 53% since 2019, according to data from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
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