The tariff wars waged by President Trump’s two administrations have reshaped U.S. agricultural trade with China.
The first trade war, in 2018 and 2019, opened the door for South American countries to gain market share in soybean and corn sales to China.
Unlike the first, this second trade war is global in scope. Its full repercussions remain to be seen, but the latest trade figures with China offer an early glimpse of what may lie ahead.
Between June 2024 and June 2025, U.S. agricultural exports to China fell 39%, according to the U.S. Census Bureau’s USA Trade Online database.
Soybeans are the United States’ leading export to China, with Brazil the main competitor for Midwestern farmers, followed by beef, beef products and cotton.
The top five markets accounted for 61% of U.S. agricultural exports in 2024. That year, Mexico overtook China and Canada to become the United States’ largest market while China dropped to third, importing $24.7 billion worth of U.S. agricultural products — a 15% decline compared to 2023. That drop was driven by weaker soybean and corn sales amid rising South American competition.
At the height of tensions last spring, Trump raised tariffs on Chinese imports to 145%. China retaliated with duties of 125% on U.S. goods.
On Aug. 11, Trump signed an executive order extending the current tariff truce with China for another 90 days, pushing the expiration date to Nov. 10. The move halted a planned escalation of tariffs, which are now capped at 30% on Chinese imports and 10% on U.S. exports.
Data Harvest (formerly Graphic of the Week) is Investigate Midwest’s way of making complex agricultural data easy to understand. Through engaging graphics, charts, and maps, we break down key trends to help readers quickly grasp the forces shaping farming, food systems, and rural communities. Want us to explore other data trends? Let us know here.
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