With the U.S. farm economy under strain from rising costs and weaker crop prices, the Justice Department is joining the U.S. Department of Agriculture to examine why the costs of farming essentials like fertilizer, seed and fuel remain high even as crop values weaken.
Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins announced in Kansas City recently that the two agencies had signed a memorandum of understanding, which she said represents a “joint commitment” to protect farmers and ranchers from volatile input costs and to ensure more competitive agricultural markets.
“The Antitrust Division of DOJ will work hand in hand with USDA — effective immediately — to take a hard look and scrutinize competitive conditions in the agricultural marketplace, including antitrust enforcement that promotes free market competition,” the USDA said in the news release.
That DOJ scrutiny comes as new USDA forecasts show farm production expenses climbing to $467.4 billion in 2025, up $12 billion from last year.
The projections highlight sharp increases between 2024 and 2025 in livestock and poultry purchases, up 21.5%, and labor costs, up 4.3%, while feed expenses are expected to fall 6.3% yet remain historically high.
Between 2020 and now, seed expenses have increased 18%, fuel and oil expenses increased 32%, fertilizer expenses increased 37%, and interest expenses increased by a whopping 73%, according to the USDA. Labor costs are up nearly 50% since 2020.
The latest USDA forecast data also show that the value of major row crops like corn and soybeans are continuing to slip from their 2022 highs.
Feed crops are projected to drop from nearly $100 billion dollars in 2022 to $71 billion dollars in 2025, while oil crops follow a similar downward trend. Specialty crops such as fruits and nuts show steady growth, expecting to rise to about $33 billion dollars in 2025.
USDA has also forecasted that net farm income will reach $179.8 billion in 2025, up 40% from last year. But most of that increase comes from federal disaster aid, not stronger markets, the agency’s own data shows. Producers are expected to receive $40.5 billion in direct government payments this year, more than triple 2024 levels, with nearly $35.2 billion tied to losses from droughts and other disasters in 2023 and 2024.
Farm profits forecast to rise, but federal aid remains a big safety net
The latest forecast from the U.S. Department of Agriculture says net farm income will reach $179.8 billion in 2025, up 40% from last year. On the surface, that sounds like a big rebound. In reality, most of that increase comes…
Data Harvest (formerly Graphic of the Week) is Investigate Midwest’s way of making complex agricultural data easy to understand. Through engaging graphics, charts, and maps, we break down key trends to help readers quickly grasp the forces shaping farming, food systems, and rural communities. Want us to explore other data trends? Let us know here.
explore more data
Republish our articles for free, online or in print.
