California hit hard by fed immigration raids

Federal immigration agents descended on California farms in early June, targeting farmworkers from blueberry fields to vegetable packing facilities.

This focus on rural communities followed a burst of indiscriminate workplace raids in urban Los Angeles, causing scores of noncitizens statewide to avoid leaving home, causing a 3.1% dip in the state’s workforce, according to a new study from researchers at UC Merced.

The report notes that only two moments in recent history compare to the June 2025 drop: the Great Recession and the COVID-19 pandemic. In this case, the state’s private-sector workforce shrank in just one month, faster than the 3.3% rise in unemployment seen during the entire first year of the Great Recession.

The consequences of the recent downturn have rippled throughout California’s economy, which could have far-reaching effects for the rest of the U.S., according to the study.

“If a worker doesn’t go to work on a farm, that’s produce that may end up rotting in the field and might never find its way to grocery store shelves,” said Edward Flores, a sociologist and faculty director of the Community and Labor Center, the largest rural labor center in the U.S. “There’s multiple jobs in the supply chain that can be affected.”

Researchers analyzed monthly employment data from the U.S. Census Bureau and found that employment by noncitizen workers dipped 7.2% between May and June due to the aggressive immigration enforcement. The results of the study should prompt policymakers to take heed, according to the researchers.

This downturn also affected the workforce of U.S. citizens. Researchers suggest that as noncitizen caregivers stayed home due to the raids, California families relying on their care (paid or unpaid) may have left the labor force as well to fill those critical gaps. The job losses hit women the hardest, who are more likely to work in caregiving roles.

While 198,428 noncitizens avoided work during the week of June 8, Flores said an additional concern is for those working in the worst conditions with the fewest worker protections. Many, he said, may be trapped in forced labor “because of the threat of retaliation, the lack of a safety net, the lack of legal status, and the threats that may be levied by an employer,”

Researchers note that while they’re still studying the national economic implications of ICE raids, the large-scale operations seen in California in June have since ceased. This followed a July federal judge’s order prohibiting ICE from racial profiling. The order came a day after 361 immigrant farmworkers were arrested — the largest federal immigration operation since Trump took office — and one fleeing farmworker died after falling from a greenhouse.

The study authors suggested that policymakers examine how to protect workers who shelter in place during heightened immigration enforcement and infuse cash into the economy where revenue was lost.

In the case of the Great Recession in 2007 and 2008 and during the COVID-19 pandemic, lawmakers invested in one-time stimulus or disaster relief spending.

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