The Trump administration’s goal to expel millions of immigrants laboring in the food system will likely increase the foreign workforce in the U.S., experts said Thursday.
The administration has said it wants U.S.-born workers to replace the immigrants who harvest fruits and vegetables and cut and package protein. But the more likely outcome is that the agriculture industry, with the administration’s help, will turn to foreign workers who come to the U.S. on temporary visas.
“Basically, they’re saying, ‘We want workers, but we don’t want people,’” said Daniel Costa, a lead immigration researcher at the Economic Policy Institute, a nonpartisan thinktank focused on working people, during a panel on Thursday.
The panel, titled “Raids, Reform and the Future of Farm Labor,” was hosted by Investigate Midwest as part of a reporting project on immigration in the food system. The reporting project is funded by the Chicago Region Food System Fund.
In the leadup to the election, Stephen Miller, widely seen as the force behind Trump’s immigration crackdown, told The New York Times, “Mass deportation will be a labor-market disruption celebrated by American workers, who will now be offered higher wages with better benefits to fill these jobs.”
However, the agriculture industry has largely pushed for temporary visas — in which foreign workers stay in the U.S. for up to several months — to address its labor needs. For instance, corn growers have hired workers on H-2A visas to detassel their crop, and some meatpacking plants have used the H-2B program to handle seasonal labor needs.
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The dairy industry has lobbied to be granted access to the visa programs. Because dairy is a yearlong industry and the programs are supposed to serve temporary needs, the industry has largely relied on undocumented labor. Following increased immigration enforcement, some dairy farms have recently sold off cows because they couldn’t find workers.
Undocumented immigrants paid $100 billion in taxes in 2022, without enjoying any of the benefits, such as Social Security or Medicare. Living in communities, they also contribute to local economies. Temporary visa workers, on the other hand, send most of the money they earn to their home countries.
The Trump administration has signaled its plans to support more access to temporary visa programs. In June, the U.S. Department of Labor announced the creation of the Office of Immigration Policy, which the labor secretary said will be a “one-stop shop” to help employers meet their labor needs.
The H-2A program has a well-documented history of wage theft, abuse and poor living conditions. However, because workers’ presence in the U.S. is tied to their employer, they rarely speak out.
America’s largest corn company, Corteva Agriscience, pledges no supply chain abuses. It’s hired a repeat offender in Iowa for years.
The panel of experts largely agreed that ICE raids would increase in the coming months.
In July, Trump signed into law his tax bill, which gave $170 billion more for immigration enforcement. ICE has also requested office space around the country as it attempts to hire thousands of new recruits, according to NPR.
“They’re going to go for the biggest bang for their buck,” said Jose Oliva, with the HEAL Food Alliance. “They’re going to raid the meat processing plants, the farms, all the places where they’re going to be able to capture a sizable percentage of undocumented immigrants.”
Earlier this year, Trump paused raids on farms after Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins intervened. During a July 4 speech, he praised Rollins for advocating for farmers. Days later, however, the raids began again. Miller, the Trump advisor, wants as many as 3,000 immigration-related arrests a day.
“Can Trump even stop the deportation and immigration enforcement that’s happening now? I’m not sure he can because he wasn’t able to in this case,” Costa said.
Increased immigration enforcement has scared many immigrants into staying home, members of the panel said.
For example, in Beardstown, Illinois, many workers at the meat processing plant were legally in the U.S. under humanitarian parole programs, but the Trump administration revoked their status.
Immigrants helped save this Illinois meatpacking town. Trump cut hundreds from its workforce.
“They’re coming in for financial assistance because they’ve burned through their savings trying to pay their rent because they just can’t find employment,” said Kate Cruz, co-director and community services block grant program manager with Western Illinois Dreamers Immigrant Welcome Center, which provides legal services and food assistance.
In Chicago, a main focus of the Trump administration’s enforcement, some immigrants have left their jobs because it’s “too dangerous” to work, Oliva said. They feel particularly scared after the Supreme Court allowed ICE to target people based on skin color, he said.
“It’s definitely an atmosphere of fear,” Oliva said.
Polls suggest that Trump’s immigration raids are unpopular. A poll in July found that the vast majority of Americans, including Republicans and independents, believe immigration is a “good thing.” Another poll in August showed that many voters disapprove of ICE’s tactics.
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