The academics studied workforce data for several places facing increased U.S. Department of Homeland Security presence: Tennessee, California, Oregon, Washington, D.C., Illinois, Louisiana and Minnesota. Together, between May 2025 and January 2026, they experienced a 1.8% decline in private-sector employment.
The rest of the U.S. saw a 1.1% increase, according to the researchers.
The decline in employment “appeared highly unusual or unprecedented,” the researchers wrote. For instance, Illinois’ employment decline between September and November — during what DHS called “Operation Midway Blitz” — matched that of only a handful of years over the past four decades.
The paper does not say what kinds of jobs are affected, but many immigrants work in the agriculture industry. (Other industries, such as service jobs and construction, rely on immigrants, as well.)
Government estimates show there are about 2 million hired farm laborers in the U.S., and more than 40% are undocumented. Hundreds of thousands of other workers in the food supply chain — meatpacking plants, grocery stores, restaurants — are also undocumented.
DHS operations have targeted these kinds of worksites, often with tactics that push the boundaries of constitutional rights.
President Trump has often said he would create more jobs, and, recently, the White House said January’s jobs report “crushes expectations.” While the figures for January were up, hiring in 2025 was weak, according to NPR.
Christopher Waller, a Federal Reserve governor, said the jobs data was a troubling sign.
“Let this sink in for a moment — zero job growth versus an average of almost 2 million for the 10 years prior to 2025,” he said in a statement. “This does not remotely look like a healthy labor market.”
Overall, immigrants have helped power the U.S. economy over the past 30 years, according to research published in February by the Cato Institute, a conservative-leaning think tank in Washington D.C.
Between 1994 and 2023, the immigrant population created “more in taxes than they received in benefits,” according to Cato. (This echoes similar findings.) During the same period, immigrants also generated a surplus of $14.5 trillion for the federal budget.
Data Harvest (formerly Graphic of the Week) is Investigate Midwest’s way of making complex agricultural data easy to understand. Through engaging graphics, charts, and maps, we break down key trends to help readers quickly grasp the forces shaping farming, food systems, and rural communities. Want us to explore other data trends? Let us know here.
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