In late February, President Trump approved attacks on Iran — and potentially blew a hole through a signature campaign promise.
As he ran for a second presidency, Trump said repeatedly he would “defeat inflation.” Once in office, and as grocery prices continued to increase throughout 2025, he said affordability was a “con job.”
Food prices were already expected to increase in 2026, and at a faster rate than their 20-year historical average.
But the war with Iran will likely turbocharge grocery prices, particularly beef, according to revised forecasts from the U.S. Department of Agriculture.
In a report published on Feb. 25, the USDA predicted overall food prices would increase by 3.1%, faster than inflation.
Beef prices were expected to increase 5.5%.
However, since then, the war has driven up fuel prices, which will increase the price of food and other products.
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In a report released on March 25, the USDA revised its predictions. Overall, food is now expected to grow by 3.6%. If that holds true, food prices will increase more than in 2020, when the COVID-19 pandemic snarled supply chains, according to the USDA.
Beef prices are now expected to increase by 10.1%.
Egg prices, a major part of Trump’s messaging on affordability early in his second term, are still expected to drop but not as much as predicted.
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